Penn State
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
68  Tessa Barrett FR 19:54
75  Tori Gerlach SR 19:57
98  Elizabeth Chikotas SO 20:01
157  Jillian Hunsberger SO 20:12
300  Julie Kocjancic JR 20:35
316  Stephanie Aldrich JR 20:37
516  Greta Lindsley FR 20:56
1,104  Victoria Crawford FR 21:42
1,333  Cara Ulizio JR 21:58
1,511  Megan Hellman SO 22:10
National Rank #14 of 339
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #1 of 37
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.7%
Most Likely Finish 17th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 5.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 23.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 76.9%


Regional Champion 63.9%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Tessa Barrett Tori Gerlach Elizabeth Chikotas Jillian Hunsberger Julie Kocjancic Stephanie Aldrich Greta Lindsley Victoria Crawford Cara Ulizio Megan Hellman
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/03 627 20:33 20:19 20:02 20:08 21:05 20:36 21:02 21:41 21:44 22:12
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 517 19:59 19:50 20:08 20:14 20:44 20:48 21:07
Penn State Nationals 10/17 1269 22:04 22:05 22:11
Big Ten Championships 11/01 333 19:54 19:38 19:47 19:51 20:19 20:26 20:44 21:31 22:09
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/13 492 19:54 20:01 20:06 20:23 20:20 20:59 20:38
NCAA Championship 11/21 505 19:42 20:03 20:05 20:26 20:39 20:28 21:15





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.7% 15.5 418 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.0 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.7 4.5 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.5 62 63.9 23.6 9.8 2.1 0.6 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tessa Barrett 99.8% 72.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7
Tori Gerlach 99.8% 79.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3
Elizabeth Chikotas 99.7% 91.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Jillian Hunsberger 99.7% 123.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Julie Kocjancic 99.7% 186.7
Stephanie Aldrich 99.7% 190.0
Greta Lindsley 99.7% 225.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tessa Barrett 5.5 6.4 8.9 10.3 9.6 10.4 9.0 8.5 6.7 5.2 5.2 4.4 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Tori Gerlach 6.1 5.2 7.1 8.7 8.8 9.8 9.2 8.1 8.2 6.4 5.7 4.6 4.0 2.6 3.1 2.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Elizabeth Chikotas 7.8 2.2 4.5 5.5 6.8 7.8 8.0 8.7 7.6 7.6 7.0 5.9 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3
Jillian Hunsberger 12.7 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 2.8 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.9 6.3 6.9 6.2 7.1 6.1 6.1 5.1 4.7 4.4 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.6
Julie Kocjancic 26.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.5
Stephanie Aldrich 27.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.9 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.5
Greta Lindsley 46.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 63.9% 100.0% 63.9 63.9 1
2 23.6% 100.0% 23.6 23.6 2
3 9.8% 100.0% 4.7 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 3
4 2.1% 99.0% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0 4
5 0.6% 62.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
Total 100% 99.7% 63.9 23.6 4.7 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 87.5 12.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 94.1% 2.0 1.9
Minnesota 93.0% 3.0 2.8
Vanderbilt 92.1% 1.0 0.9
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 1.0 0.4
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 3.0 0.3
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Lipscomb 6.0% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 2.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Mississippi 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 3.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 12.3
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 22.0